Interest rate trends in a global context

نویسندگان

چکیده

Long-term interest rates have been falling globally since the early 1980s and reached historically low levels. Past forecasts largely missed this secular decline. This paper reviews methodologies for making long-term rate projections. We synthesize results from studies that use long historical series cross-country data to estimate trend decompose it into components. then construct a set of economic indicators are potentially useful in forecasting. add international forward-looking as explanatory variables standard macro-finance forecasting model. find model with can outperform other models by better tracking trajectory U.S. post-2008 period, is domestic variables.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Economic Modelling

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['0264-9993', '1873-6122']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105532